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Saturday, April 13, 2013

The Scariest 50 Hours

 

There was a four year stretch where I was responsible for big currency spec positions. I was regularly over a billion dollars long short in either USDJPY or USDDM (this was before the Euro). This happened many years ago. I don’t things are any different today, there are plenty of folks making mega-billion dollar currency bets in April 2013.

The numbers back then were surreal. Daily P/L changes were regularly $5m. It was not unusual to make or lose $25 million in a week. There were a number of us involved in this effort – trading at this level requires a 24/7 effort. We all had a percentage due to us based on the annual results. Of course we tracked what our share of the daily gains and losses were. At one point someone started to measure the personal results in cars, not money. It was either dark comedy, or a way of obfuscating the big numbers we were confronted with on a daily basis. I can understand how some readers will find this repugnant, it’s the way of fast money.

 

How’d I do today?…..You lost a 7 series BMW.

What was your weekly nut?…..Three Corvettes.

 

I did if for four years, it wore me down more than you can imagine. I had to give it up. The FX market doesn’t owe me a thing, but I still have the tire tracks on my back. The money was one thing, the stress was a different story.

The markets were very liquid. To buy or sell $1b was a few phone calls; it took only a minute or two. From 6pm Sunday in NY, to around 4 on Friday there is an active FX market someplace on the globe. If you had to turn-and-run on a position, you could do it. But after 4 PM on Friday, you were dead in the water. For the next 50 hours you were stuck with what you had. And of course, these are the hours when big things happen.

To be “square” on Friday night meant you could sleep through the weekend. But you didn’t make money that way. We were paid to take big risks. I sweated through dozens of those weekends.

 

I bring this up as I was reminded of those times with the 4:30 pm Friday release of information by Treasury Secretary Lew (Link):

 

Screen Shot 2013-04-13 at 8.48.46 AM

 

There are two potentially market moving sections in the report. The Treasury Department planted a “dirty bomb” at the Bank of Japan, and tossed a grenade at the Swiss National Bank. I’m thinking of all the folks who are big long USDJPY. They are going to have to sweat the next 50 hours. They have to hold their cards and wait. I suspect that quite a few FX players will have their weekends ruined.

 

The key words on Japan:

We will continue to press Japan to adhere to the commitments agreed to in the G7 and G 20, to remain oriented towards meeting respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments and to refrain from competitive devaluation and targeting its exchange rate for competitive purposes.
 
A more subtle approach was taken by Treasury with regard to Switzerland and its currency peg. In prior reports, the Treasury has said that Switzerland should return to a true floating rate, but only when “Conditions in Europe have been stabilized”. The latest report omits this language. The clear suggestion is that Switzerland should normalize its exchange controls sooner versus later.
 
 
The 4:30 PM timing of the Treasury announcement was done to minimize the market consequences in the US. It does set up for an interesting opening in Asia Sunday night. Having been in this situation a few times, I’ll hazard a guess on how this turns out. In the early hours Sunday night, when it’s just Australia that’s awake, the USDJPN will set a low of about 98.00. By the time the Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore markets are up and running, USDJPN, will be closer to 99.
 
I think the “lasting” market effect of Mr. Lew’s statements will be measured in hours. I don’t think the Bank Of Japan will stop printing money, in fact I think they will make an affirmative statement that will weaken the Yen. Nor do I think that the Swiss National Bank will pay any attention to what Lew has said.Some headlines will come that will read something like:
 
 
BOJ not targeting any level for USDJPY.
BOJ not attempting devaluation of YEN in FX markets
BOJ committed to QE policy set forth on 3/14/13.
BOJ to maintain target of 2% inflation.
BOJ policy is not inconsistent with G20 or G7.
 
SNB says 1.20 peg will be maintained.
SNB reaffirms it will intervene in unlimited quantities to maintain Peg.
SNB says USA is manipulating global markets more than Switzerland.
SNB say US Treasury Secretary does not understand FX markets.
 
 
We have an interesting setup developing. Japan has gotten a warning from its biggest trading partner (and military ally). And Japan is going to completely ignore it. When the rebuke to Jack Lew comes (it will) it will be the clearest sign you could get that the door is open for another big up move in USDJPY. Japan Inc. is going to thumb its nose at Jack Lew. And there is not a damn thing that Jack Lew can do about it.
 
 
In my forecasts for 2013 (December 2012, well before Lew was nominated) I said:
 
- Jack Lew will replace Geithner as Treasury Secretary. This choice will be driven by Lew’s knowledge and experience with budget matters. But Lew knows nothing of the capital markets and this will be a problem when a non-budget crisis emerges. Lew will say something about the currency markets that causes a big flap. There will be calls for his resignation as a result.
 
 
I think we just had the Jack Lew moment that I was anticipating. I believe that Jackie Boy has made a mistake. He picked a public fight with Japan that he can’t win. Having picked the fight, he can’t back off. When the BOJ and the markets make him look silly (USDJPY = 110+) there is going to be pressure on him. Jackie has set himself up for a fall.
 
In all my years of watching (and participating) in the FX markets I have never once seen a situation where “talk” accomplished a damn thing. In fact, idle talk often creates the opposite reaction to what was intended. So for those who are having sphincter problems this weekend over a long USDJPY book, and the 50 hours you have to wait to find out what happens, I say relax. By the opening in NY on Monday, you will be okay again. In a few weeks you’ll be buying hot cars and houses.
 
Jack Lew, on the other hand, is in for a jolt. He probably thought he could talk, and markets would obey him. Some egg is going to hit Jack in the face. The “rule” in these matters is that you don’t pick a public fight that you can’t win, and that is exactly what Lew has done.
 
 
 
Oshitz
 
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Comments

  1. Over the last five years turning points in JPYUSD have correlated with the gold market – yen strong means gold strong, yen weak means gold weak. Why is that?!? Same relationship does not hold for Euro or Pound.

    • I think this is due to the “gold carry trade” perpetrated by central banks & bullion banks in order to hide/delay the effects of rampant, overspending-induced, inflation. But others at sites like http://www.gata.org know much more about this stuff.

  2. Yen’s been considered a safe haven of sorts for a while – b/c the BOJ and the Japanese politics are typically very non-aggressive in monetary matters. Hence the currency was considered safer. Looks like times are a changin’

  3. Be careful of the randomness of patterns. Read “Fooled by Randomness” by Nicholas Taleb – you’ll be glad you did.

  4. The bigger question that must be answered is who told Lew to issue this statement. Lew just got to Treasury. He hasn’t even found the men’s room. He still answers to his Master at Citibank. Does Citi have a position that must be unwound? Yes.

    When they finally stumble on the smoking gun, Holder has their back. He said so.

    • Not all patterns are random. This relationship was also true during the 1970s gold rally. I get that Yen used to be a “safe haven” but why does Yen now being trash mean gold should stop being a safe haven??

      • The safe havens were:
        Gold
        CHF
        Yen
        AAPL

        Now all busted safe havens. But what amazes me is that things are scary as ever, and now there is no where to hide. Very interesting world.

        • And everything gets tired; even safe havens. Gold was up 12 years in a row. That has to be some kind of record for an asset class. The safe havens will have their day in the sun again.
          And I agree that not all patterns are random. You just have to be careful not to over-interpret or over-trade them.

  5. “To be ‘square’ on Friday night meant you could sleep through the weekend. But you didn’t make money that way. We were paid to take big risks. I sweated through dozens of those weekends.”

    Did you, if you don’t mind sharing, have any health issues from these type of weekends?

    Were there any ‘cucumbers’ working with you? Cool types that didn’t let the risks appear to bother them?

    (It’s not my position that one personalty type is better than the other; I am just noting that differences do exist. Those differences are very interesting.)

    • In retrospect, I think I was too emotional about it. Thus the stress and the burn out.

      Even worse, I punished myself. One week I would lose $50m and suffer emotionally. The next week I would make $60m, but get no joy. Again – the burn out.

      I guess there are some who have ice in their veins, and never feel these things at all. I’ve never met one of them that was in the seat of power that was not a type A. It’s a stressful business. Everyone takes it personal.

      I got out at 45. Too early to have serious health problems related to stress. If I pushed the window and kept it up, I would be dead today.
      bk

  6. I burned out trading a European equity fund, before the Euro, and had 10-12 currencies to deal with and hedge/unhedge. Stress is a killer. Good for you for getting out after 4 years. I spent 14 years and it costs me 2 disks in my neck, where I now have a fusion.

  7. Could the takedown in gold be not only to scare US retail away, but also Japanese retail, who are switching out of JGBs? The gold price fell in Yen. This way the flow from JGBs can be focused into European and US sovereign bonds…?

    • It is a good thought but the gold market is so tiny compared to the bond market it doesn’t seem to be a viable concern. Also the Japanese are so xenophobic, they will go down with their JGB ship and/or their currency.

  8. “I traded against (and with) the likes of George Soros, Nick Roditi and Stan Druckenmiller. These guys were much bigger than I was, but a water boy? No, that’s not the right description.”

    You really belive you were some bigshot. You were not and you aren’t, you are a old person and I am not. I would love to trade againts those hairless apes like you. Give me same information and I tell you what to do kid.

  9. Just speculation, but I don’t think Lew is sweating anything. Ignorance, after all, is bliss.

    Anyway, Caroline Baum thinks you’re right, too. She just puts it a bit more mildly, a few days later.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-15/u-s-treasury-to-boj-do-as-we-say-not-as-we-do.html

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