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Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Pam was so Big she…..

 

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 UPDATE  – March 23, 2015. I posted the following article on 3/17. It was based on a report from Australian meteorologists. Today, the US NOAA  report on El Nino had the following headline in the summary. This is the first time that this has happened in over four years! NOAA is now confirming what the Australians said a week ago. NOAA also confirmed that a very rapid warmup in the Pacific has taken place. Significant weather changes are about to happen. The NOAA  LINK.

It’s here today!

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The changes the past two months

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The original story:

Cyclone Pam was a monster Category 5 storm. It had peak winds of 185 MPH, waves that would crash over a four story building. The barometer fell to 915, the storm’s ‘eye’ was 2o miles across across, the total low pressure area was a million square miles. The islands of Vanuatu got whacked hard.

Okay, this was a big one. One for the books. But I was amazed to learn that Pam had the power to change the weather outlook for a large portion of the globe.

Based on information just released, a significant change in global weather is either upon us today or will will be in a matter of weeks. As the consequences of Pam unfold, tens of millions of people will be affected one way or the other.

Sound like Tin Foil Hat stuff? Maybe. We shall see – in the very near future.

The Australian Government Meteorological Office blew my mind surprised me  with this comment (Link):

As a result of severe tropical cyclone Pam in the southern hemisphere, and tropical storm Bavi (category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale) in the northern hemisphere, a strong reversal of the trade winds occurred in the equatorial Pacific just west of the Date Line. This is likely to initiate a downwelling Kelvin Wave and subsequent warming in the ocean sub-surface and potentially surface.

What does that mean? It means that there is, all of a sudden, a very high probability that an El Nino is right around the corner.

Consider this chart released today by the Aussies. Note the average of the forecast models goes into the orange (El Nino territory) in April.

 

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Now look at the same chart from a month ago. The timing and relative strength of the ENSO cycle has increased.  The change in outlook is attributable to Pam.

 

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Consider what the models were saying 30 days ago regarding expectations for May. Note that only Model ECMWF predicted a significant upturn in ocean temperatures:

 

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The following chart, released today shows the estimates for the month of April (this is for the period a month before the prior slide), yet it shows a rapidly growing consensus for El Nino.

 

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The following is the report for June. All models are now in El Nino. This is an additional indications of how rapid the coming change will be.

 

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The next  slide is the latest estimate for August, 2015 – just  four months from today. Note that model ECMWF (prior winner) is suggesting a very strong 2.0 El Nino. All of the models are lined up – A 2015 El Nino event is now 100% certain to happen (if you believe models).

 

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Suppose this comes true – what are the implications? A strong El Nino would result in above average rainfall in the entire Pacific West. It would also relieve the more serious drought conditions now occurring in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

If you believe in any of this you might consider one of the following:

-Buy flood insurance if you live in California.

-Buy lift tickets and rent lodges at the West Coast ski resorts now – tons of snow next winter will cause prices to soar.

-Buy Vail stock.

-Buy cheap/dry farmland in California – it might pop with the rain.

-Buy lake front property on Lake Mead (today the water is hundreds of yards away).

- Buy the stock of Brazilian hydroelectric companies that today have no water to make juice.

-Short coffee beans – (The Brazilian crop will be bumper next year).

-Sell insurance company stocks who underwrite homeowners in California.

-Municipalities in West Coast flood prone areas should make some preparations. These changes will happen in a matter of months.

 

Okay, that stuff is a bit over the top. My point is that many things will change if the rains return to California and Brazil. We shall know soon enough if a significant new weather patterns is in the offing. But assume that this does play out as the meteorologists are now forecasting. What this means is that a big storm in the Pacific, at just the right time and place, can knock global weather into a new loop. Pam was a random event that may have significant and lasting results. The butterfly flapped its wings, there will be broad, unforeseen consequences.

If science can’t predict random events that alter weather patterns in significant ways on a month-to-month basis how can those same scientists predict, with such precision, what will happen in fifty-years?

 

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Comments

  1. As the admin of this website is working, no question very quickly it will be well-known, due to its feature contents.

  2. Superb piece of information.

  3. nice piece, many thanks

  4. The El Nino occurs due to difference in cool and warm water. The formerly cooler waters have warmed due to global warming, and are no longer cool enough to create a strong El Nino. There will only be weak El Ninos in the future. not enough to help California.

    • Is this a case where the global warming people have their facts wrong again…

      Last time I looked el nino was the warming of ocean currents.

  5. Just watched an episode of “Vice”, showing one helluva lot of compelling eivdence that Antarctica is melting. You know, people can sit in rooms and in front of cameras and rant all day on blogs about how the planet is getting warmer, or not, how global climate change is occurring, or not. But watching continent – sized icebergs dropping off the ice shelves in the North and South extremes of the world, seeing evidence of ice melting kilometers inland, seeing Bangladesh submerge under salt water, and seeing superstorms drowning land masses globally is kind of compelling evidence that the earth is warming. I’m not sitting in either camp, nor do I buy into the politics of either side. I beleive what is true, what is placed before my eyes, when someone takes the time to get me to shut up for 2 seconds, and turn my head towards the evidence. So maybe shut up and stop listening to one side and explore both sides, IMHO.

  6. Marc – I wrote about a weather event, something that will last a year or two at most. This has nothing to do with climate.

  7. Off topic here, but what are your views on greek banks shareholders treatment in case of exit/default? That’s more actionable imo.
    Thx

  8. … asking just because I think you were there when LatAm went down, and could draw on your experience.
    Thx

    • Mike – I’m currently 60/40 on a Grexit. 60% they will figure out a way to stay with the Euro, 40% chance that it all goes to hell.

      So I don’t see a clear “bet” at the moment. Better to wait and see what happens an then act. If the 40% happens there will be major chaos in Greece. Bank values will collapse. If and when that happens it might be safe to out and pick up some of the crumbs. Right now I see too much downside to play on the long side, and the cost of being short is too high.

      • Thanks for the colour. I am also sitting this one out for now. I don’t see how they stay in without unraveling the whole thing. If you look at argentine stocks they shot up in peso terms and more than made up for the devaluation, but here the wildcard is what will varoufakis do to banks shareholders. He seemed pretty incensed in that marxist interview from 2013.

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