Sunday, January 26, 2014

Which Door Will Yellen Choose?


  Two theories to explain the year-to-date global dumpathon. The first is that it's all local issues - no single macro story explains the depth of the sell off. Some examples (and why they are individually no big deal):   + Turkey is facing … [Continue reading]

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Mel Watt on Fannie and Freddie – I want to go back to 2008

The Carlyle Group prepares to launch its IPO

  When Harry Reid (D-NV) changed the rules on how the Senate votes for a Presidential appointment, he opened the door for a critical change in the leadership at the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA). In short order, the Administrations' … [Continue reading]

Thursday, December 19, 2013

CBO on SS – Another 29′ Crash?

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  The Congressional Budget Office is out with its annual review of Social Security. It's a long report - here's all you need to know:     This result is no surprise. SS's finances deteriorate every year. What I found interesting … [Continue reading]

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Taper Talk is Back – It’s Not Going Away This Time


  The capital market for new issues and refinancing of corporate debt has been on a tear the past few months - I think that ended yesterday.  That's because the dreaded Taper Talk has resurfaced. The Fed minutes yesterday rekindled Fear of … [Continue reading]

Sunday, November 10, 2013

On The Labor Force Participation Rate


  I was blown out by the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) data released Friday. Down 4 tics to 62.8%. That sounds like no big deal, but it is. Either there is something out of whack with the data, and it will be revised, or there will have … [Continue reading]

Monday, November 4, 2013

America’s Income – Who Has It?


  America’s tax system and the major social programs (Medicaid and Obamacare) are driven by income. The Social Security Administration has put out a report on income in America. The data covers all wage earners (153.6 million workers and the … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Me and ACA

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  I tried a bunch of times to get on NYS's health exchange last week. Dead end. The site went down for 'repairs' over the weekend, but as of 8 AM today it was up and running.  Some thoughts. The first step is to get a user ID. For those … [Continue reading]

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Obama – “I need a lever”


  As a long time watcher of Social Security I was shocked (yes, shocked) at the recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on America's largest entitlement program. CBO concluded that the long term outlook for SS deteriorated substantially … [Continue reading]

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Obamacare – An Unintended Consequence?


  Obamacare officially kicks off in nine days. What the heck is going to happen? I don't believe that anyone really knows. I'm concerned that there will be many 'unintended' consequences. Information has being coming out in recent days about … [Continue reading]

Friday, September 13, 2013

Verizon Rant


  I'm amazed at the Verizon mega bond deal. $50 billion gets raised on incredibly easy terms. Folks, this is acquisition debt; it's junk dressed up. And today we learn that a huge chunk of the paper is ending up in retail accounts (Link). The … [Continue reading]