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Tuesday, November 17, 2015

It’s Official – Biggest Nino Ever – Killer La Nina to Follow

 

This morning NOAA released its data for the Pacific Ocean temperatures for the week of November 9th.  We hit a record – the current El Nino is the strongest in recorded history.

Before 2015 the largest recorded weekly reading of El Nino occurred during the week of November 26 in 1997. We passed that milestone last week. The data from 1997 – The El Nino index set a record of 2.8: (Link to data)

 

noaa1997

 

As of last week the Pacific Ocean in region 3.4 (where El Nino is measured) hit a new record of 3.0: (Link)

 record

 

So another weather record has been set. What does it mean? In the very short term it means that there will be some hellacious weather in the US Pacific West/Texas in the next 90 days. It also means there will be a drought in Australia and Indonesia. Other parts of the globe will feel the consequences of the mega Nino.

However, there is another consequence of this year’s El Nino that is virtually a sure thing to happen within the next half year. A very rapid change in El Nino water temperatures will follow – in nine months we will have gone 180 degrees in the opposite direction and we will be dealing with a very strong La Nina.

 

The following plots the changes from El Nino (red) to La Nina (blue). Note the rapid change that occurred from November of 1997 to the fall of 1998. A very big La Nina followed the record El Nino:

The numbers:

1998

A chart of the 1998 event:

98chart

This chart from today’s NOAA report is a synopsis of the computer forecasts for the for the collapsing El Nino and soon-to-be La Nina.

MODEL

What will the coming La Nina bring us? If history is the gauge, then we should be preparing for a record hurricane season in the summer/fall of 2016, and a return to the crushing droughts in the Pacific West. This is what NOAA reports for the hurricane season of 1998:

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-16 at 9.29.34 AM

 

In March of 2015 the Australian Meteorology department issued its first warning that a big El Nino was in our future. I wrote about it, and in the blog I made some predictions/recommendations of what it meant. Many of those things have now proven correct (Link). So I’ll go out on a limb with some deep thoughts on the coming La Nina:

- If you live anywhere along the US coast from Virginia all the way to Texas (especially Florida) make some preparations.

-If you’re thinking of putting your house up on stilts to avoid flood damage, do it now. By March of 2016 the “Coming La Nina” story will be in the media – too late to hire the construction crews to raise the house.

-To the extent possible increase flood and wind insurance protection.

-Short the stocks of those insurance companies that have large risk exposure to the US east coast.

-If you’re thinking of buying that dream house on the ocean in the Sunbelt, wait a year – there will be some bargains. If you’re a seller – call the broker soon….

 

The La Nina will result in a resumption of drought conditions in the West. So consider:

-Enjoy the West Coast skiing this year – the next two years will suck.

-Don’t buy a vegetable farm (or heaven forbid a grape grower) in California just yet.

-Pot growers in Cali (huge biz) are going to get squeezed – these growers use a ton of water.

I wonder about Phoenix and Las Vegas (more than SF or LA). These cities are highly dependent on the Colorado River/Lake Mead. In a year the headline will be; “Drought Returns – Lake Mead Level Resumes Drop”. What might be the implications of that? I can’t think of anything to be ‘long’ of in that scenario – including casinos…..

 

There is even a political side to this. Assume that we get the La Nina, and we have an over-sized hurricane season that brings with it significant damage. This would happen 30-60 days before the election. Would it make a difference at the ballot box? The Press reaction to a big storm would be:

“Super Storm Lolita – More Evidence of Climate Change!”

And what are the positions of some of the candidates?

Rubio:

“We’re not going to make America a harder place to create jobs in order to pursue policies that will do absolutely nothing, nothing to change our climate.”

 

Trump:

“So I am not a believer, and I will, unless somebody can prove something to me, I believe there’s weather.”

 

Carson: (WTF?)

“I believe that God gave the creatures he made the ability to adapt to their environment. Because he’s very smart and he didn’t want to start over every 50 years.”

 

My fictional “Hurricane Lolita” would crash into Del Boca Vista – the worst damage would be to the Republican party.

 

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Comments

  1. Why the cheap shot at the end Bruce? Kind of ruined the whole article. Very sad.

    • Cheap shot? I thought it was humor.
      From long experience in investing I try to look at things and then project into the future.
      Given what is happening with the ENSO cycle it is not a stretch to consider the consequences of a big storm this fall. Should that happen, Republicans will be held up in the Press. Look what the leading candidates are saying – You really think Carson is right with his words?

      • Bruce, NOAA doesn’t know for a certainty what causes El Ninos https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/enso-tech.php Can you show us how putting up solar panels or wind mills will effect El Ninos? NO. Are you saying that the MSM will spin any weather story to the benefit of their political masters, the Democrats? Bart

      • I actually thought Carson’s words were right on the mark. Even if you don’t believe in God, replace that word with “Mother Nature” and you get the same meaning. Man HAS survived much worse climate variations than we are experiencing now. Geez, they survived the last ice age, which is a lot harder to cope with than a 10th of a degree warming, which while making some places slightly less habitable, will make others slightly more. Who are we to try to play god and pick who on the planet gets the good weather, even if we really had the ability to impact it.

    • Why because he’s telling the truth? You know that the Climate Change “believers” will resort to any falsehood they can to support their claims. El Nino and La Nina have been around for years and years, are very predictable, and have nothing to do with atmospheric CO2, but none of the climate change “scientists” seem to care about facts. This is why most meteorologists “deny” climate change.

  2. Might want to look at the ag futures market. (follow the money!) Maybe a little different look.
    I agree with the previous poster. Republican shot irrelevant. Weakens your brand.
    C

  3. The Repubs: what’s next?

    Biting the heads off chickens?

    Stay the course, Bruce.

  4. The press always hates Republicans. Even the press isn’t bothering to try and blame the Paris attacks on Bush anymore, am I correct?
    Back to hurricanes.. the last big year was 2005 correct. I’m guessing 2005 (or 2004-2005 combined) was way bigger than 1998. Does not seem to correlate to El Nino. Two main factors in Atlantic hurricanes. Water temp (in the gulf of mexico and caribbean sea) and jet stream. Jet stream can tear apart hurricanes. Happened this year with Claudette.
    Anyway sorry for PMS’ing on you , I live in SWFL now, so very much aware of hurricanes now.

  5. Great to see you back in action. Where does this leave us up North with the weather. Am I going to get some outdoor training this winter for my ultra races?

  6. Forgot to say also, glad you are back!
    Got any insights into the recent deal to “fix” the SSDI problem?

  7. Maybe I’m super slow today, but I failed to see any ‘cheap shot’ at the end or anywhere else. It all resonated in me, but as I near 73 perhaps I’ve become more accepting of our New Bizzaro World Disorder….

    As for climate change, I follow Dr George Gamow in that we must discuss our lives in 100,000 year cycles, as the scale of astrophysical time & events doesn’t allow for smaller units. Kinda puts us in our place, dontcha think?

  8. I used to enjoy your commentary and insight into Currency markets. I hope you’ll resume writing on that from time to time.

  9. I was really affected by your writings about that issue.you wrote useful things for me.you made me pleasure, god makes you pleasure.

  10. Is there any source that will explain your government numbers above?

    I’m not interested in politics/political correctness and I do not “believe” that the science of “global warming” (or is it global cooling this week?) is settled.

    And with all the lies and manipulated statistics which emanate from government (in numerous topics), what makes these numbers believable and what do these numbers represent? Is there a way to verify these numbers and their meanings “independently”? That is without having to be a “believer” in the global hysteria of climate change?
    Thank you for your objectivity.

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