.
Friday, December 19, 2014

Fog of War

 I think this man must be worried. He has a huge weight on his shoulders. This is Thomas Jordan, the head of the Swiss National Bank.  Mr. Jordan has excellent academic credentials.  He's a scholar, and a 'lifer' at the SNB:University of Berne, PHD EconomicsDepartment of Economics at Harvard University,three-year post-doctoral research.1997 SNB Economic Advisor in Department 1.On 18 April 2012, appointed Chairman of the Governing Board of the SNB.  Unfortunately, Mr. Jordan's … [Continue reading]

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Keystone Comedy?

Screen Shot 2014-12-06 at 12.37.54 PM

 How about the price of crude? It's now down 40% in six months! The oil biz has been knocked on its ass as a result. The oil stocks have been taken behind the shed and beaten with a stick, losses of 20-40% in market cap are common. The fallout … [Continue reading]

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Closing in on One Twenty

rclock-01-20_34394_lg

 Three major FX pairs are closing in on rates where the big figures start with 120. The ones that have my interest are:USDJPY = 119.40EURCHF  =1.2030EURUSD = 1.2335 USDJPY looks like it wants to cross 120 in a matter of hours. The question … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Will it Rain in California this Winter?

landsign

  High on my list of: THINGS THAT COULD GO VERY WRONG, is the drought in the west coast. The three year run of below average rain has already had a big toll. Agricultural production is way off, fires are burning in all of the affected states, … [Continue reading]

Monday, July 28, 2014

Social Security Versus CBO – Who Do You Trust?

sandbag-property-800x800

  The 2014 Social Security report to Congress is finally out (Link). The report was released four-months later than permitted by law; this is the sixth year in a row that the Report has been late. The word 'sloppy' comes to mind; Treasury … [Continue reading]

Sunday, May 25, 2014

On Drip, Rake and Big Swinging Dicks

fcracbo

  Years ago, when I was a Wall Street banker, there was a ton of pressure to make money TODAY. If you made money today (the calendar year) you got a big bonus, you got a raise and promotion and more capital allocated to what you were doing so … [Continue reading]

Saturday, April 26, 2014

What’s A Trillion Among Friends?

Screen Shot 2014-04-24 at 8.09.19 AM

  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) came out with its latest baseline estimates for Social Security (SS) this week.  This is the full report:     As an ex Wall Streeter I always go to the 'Cash Flow' numbers first, as cash … [Continue reading]

Thursday, April 17, 2014

A Ramble on PR

Screen Shot 2014-04-15 at 9.48.59 AM 1

  To me, the big, big, big Macro economic factor is population growth (or the lack of it). Coupled with population growth is the rate of aging within the population. I don't care what the Fed and all the other CB's do to push back on the … [Continue reading]

Saturday, April 5, 2014

On Lewis and HFT

NYSE

  I'm amazed at what's happened since the Mike Lewis/60 Minutes interview. It's like the book has unearthed some heretofore unknown information. As a result of these 'revelations' the Press has gone mad (it's a global story), and the FBI, SEC … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Adios Fannie Pref

banksy-monet

  I first wrote about (and got invested in)  the Fannie and Freddie Preferred stock back in the summer of 2009, Link. As of today, the last of those shares have been sold. For those who followed my path, an explanation for my exit. By pure … [Continue reading]