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Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Is 105 the New 120? – A Crazy Thought On What Happens Next

 The Euro CHF has crossed well over the 1.05 level and looks fairly solid to me. This is a huge bounce from the chaotic levels reached on 1/15 when the SNB floated (low of ~.85). The cross is now 20% off the bottom, and only 15% from where the craziness started.Step back and look at the post chaos trading and you might conclude that the "market" is trying to reprice the EURCHF to some reasonable level. And that conclusion would be completely wrong. The market is not repricing the CHF - THE … [Continue reading]

Friday, January 23, 2015

Ain’t no Nino

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 Things on my 'Love' list include, women, markets and weather. Maybe I'm drawn to these because they are all unpredictable. I hope I never get to the point where women become predictable (no fun in that). I know that markets will always produce … [Continue reading]

Sunday, January 18, 2015

SNB – Post-Mortem

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 The Swiss National Bank move to eliminate the 1.2 EURCHF Peg has proven to be a big market/media event.  Follows a few random thoughts on how this story played out. Caveat -  Some of this is wonkish, some guesses on my part. The Weekly … [Continue reading]

Thursday, January 15, 2015

End of CB Power – SNB Folds

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 I wrote about the Swiss National Bank being forced to abandon its currency peg to the Euro on 12/3/14, 12/8/14 and 1/11/15. That said, I'm blown away that this has happened today. Thomas Jordan, the head of the SNB has repeated said that … [Continue reading]

Sunday, January 11, 2015

“Wise Man” sinks SNB?

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 The Federal Reserve made a whopping $98 Billion in 2014. That's a huge amount of money. How big is it?- It's about equal to the state budgets of NY, California and Texas.- It comes to $300 for every man woman and child in the country. It is … [Continue reading]

Friday, December 19, 2014

Fog of War

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 I think this man must be worried. He has a huge weight on his shoulders. This is Thomas Jordan, the head of the Swiss National Bank.  Mr. Jordan has excellent academic credentials.  He's a scholar, and a 'lifer' at the SNB:University of … [Continue reading]

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Keystone Comedy?

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 How about the price of crude? It's now down 40% in six months! The oil biz has been knocked on its ass as a result. The oil stocks have been taken behind the shed and beaten with a stick, losses of 20-40% in market cap are common. The fallout … [Continue reading]

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Closing in on One Twenty

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 Three major FX pairs are closing in on rates where the big figures start with 120. The ones that have my interest are:USDJPY = 119.40EURCHF  =1.2030EURUSD = 1.2335 USDJPY looks like it wants to cross 120 in a matter of hours. The question … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Will it Rain in California this Winter?

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  High on my list of: THINGS THAT COULD GO VERY WRONG, is the drought in the west coast. The three year run of below average rain has already had a big toll. Agricultural production is way off, fires are burning in all of the affected states, … [Continue reading]

Monday, July 28, 2014

Social Security Versus CBO – Who Do You Trust?

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  The 2014 Social Security report to Congress is finally out (Link). The report was released four-months later than permitted by law; this is the sixth year in a row that the Report has been late. The word 'sloppy' comes to mind; Treasury … [Continue reading]