Thursday, July 21, 2016

The Girl Child Arrives

 Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific fell another 0.2 degrees in the last week. This drop was sufficient to achieve La Nina conditions: It was just seven months ago that the strongest El Nino in recorded history was set. The weatherfolks and their computers were anticipating that the Pacific Ocean would revert to a neutral status (+/- 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit).  Now it looks like a full bore La Nina is in the immediate future.There are a dozen or so computers that track the … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

It’s Official – Biggest Nino Ever – Killer La Nina to Follow


 This morning NOAA released its data for the Pacific Ocean temperatures for the week of November 9th.  We hit a record - the current El Nino is the strongest in recorded history.Before 2015 the largest recorded weekly reading of El Nino … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

California – A Deluge Followed by Mega Drought?

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 Both NOAA and the Australian Meteorologists issued El Nino updates in the past 24 hours. The weekly numbers that were released confirm that an historic event is taking place. It now is (nearly) certain that the most significant El Nino in … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Pam was so Big she…..

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  UPDATE  - March 23, 2015. I posted the following article on 3/17. It was based on a report from Australian meteorologists. Today, the US NOAA  report on El Nino had the following headline in the summary. This is the first time that this has … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Is 105 the New 120? – A Crazy Thought On What Happens Next

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 The Euro CHF has crossed well over the 1.05 level and looks fairly solid to me. This is a huge bounce from the chaotic levels reached on 1/15 when the SNB floated (low of ~.85). The cross is now 20% off the bottom, and only 15% from where the … [Continue reading]

Friday, January 23, 2015

Ain’t no Nino


 Things on my 'Love' list include, women, markets and weather. Maybe I'm drawn to these because they are all unpredictable. I hope I never get to the point where women become predictable (no fun in that). I know that markets will always produce … [Continue reading]

Sunday, January 18, 2015

SNB – Post-Mortem

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 The Swiss National Bank move to eliminate the 1.2 EURCHF Peg has proven to be a big market/media event.  Follows a few random thoughts on how this story played out. Caveat -  Some of this is wonkish, some guesses on my part. The Weekly … [Continue reading]

Thursday, January 15, 2015

End of CB Power – SNB Folds


 I wrote about the Swiss National Bank being forced to abandon its currency peg to the Euro on 12/3/14, 12/8/14 and 1/11/15. That said, I'm blown away that this has happened today. Thomas Jordan, the head of the SNB has repeated said that … [Continue reading]

Sunday, January 11, 2015

“Wise Man” sinks SNB?

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 The Federal Reserve made a whopping $98 Billion in 2014. That's a huge amount of money. How big is it?- It's about equal to the state budgets of NY, California and Texas.- It comes to $300 for every man woman and child in the country. It is … [Continue reading]

Friday, December 19, 2014

Fog of War


 I think this man must be worried. He has a huge weight on his shoulders. This is Thomas Jordan, the head of the Swiss National Bank.  Mr. Jordan has excellent academic credentials.  He's a scholar, and a 'lifer' at the SNB:University of … [Continue reading]