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Friday, January 23, 2015

Ain’t no Nino

 Things on my 'Love' list include, women, markets and weather. Maybe I'm drawn to these because they are all unpredictable. I hope I never get to the point where women become predictable (no fun in that). I know that markets will always produce surprises (US ten-year at 1.8%, while GDP hits 5%?....And things like the SNB fail).  And it brings me a bit of pleasure to see that the best and brightest weather folks actually don't have a clue what will happen next.I follow what the scientists … [Continue reading]

Sunday, January 18, 2015

SNB – Post-Mortem

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 The Swiss National Bank move to eliminate the 1.2 EURCHF Peg has proven to be a big market/media event.  Follows a few random thoughts on how this story played out. Caveat -  Some of this is wonkish, some guesses on my part. The Weekly … [Continue reading]

Thursday, January 15, 2015

End of CB Power – SNB Folds

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 I wrote about the Swiss National Bank being forced to abandon its currency peg to the Euro on 12/3/14, 12/8/14 and 1/11/15. That said, I'm blown away that this has happened today. Thomas Jordan, the head of the SNB has repeated said that … [Continue reading]

Sunday, January 11, 2015

“Wise Man” sinks SNB?

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 The Federal Reserve made a whopping $98 Billion in 2014. That's a huge amount of money. How big is it?- It's about equal to the state budgets of NY, California and Texas.- It comes to $300 for every man woman and child in the country. It is … [Continue reading]

Friday, December 19, 2014

Fog of War

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 I think this man must be worried. He has a huge weight on his shoulders. This is Thomas Jordan, the head of the Swiss National Bank.  Mr. Jordan has excellent academic credentials.  He's a scholar, and a 'lifer' at the SNB:University of … [Continue reading]

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Keystone Comedy?

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 How about the price of crude? It's now down 40% in six months! The oil biz has been knocked on its ass as a result. The oil stocks have been taken behind the shed and beaten with a stick, losses of 20-40% in market cap are common. The fallout … [Continue reading]

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Closing in on One Twenty

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 Three major FX pairs are closing in on rates where the big figures start with 120. The ones that have my interest are:USDJPY = 119.40EURCHF  =1.2030EURUSD = 1.2335 USDJPY looks like it wants to cross 120 in a matter of hours. The question … [Continue reading]

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Will it Rain in California this Winter?

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  High on my list of: THINGS THAT COULD GO VERY WRONG, is the drought in the west coast. The three year run of below average rain has already had a big toll. Agricultural production is way off, fires are burning in all of the affected states, … [Continue reading]

Monday, July 28, 2014

Social Security Versus CBO – Who Do You Trust?

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  The 2014 Social Security report to Congress is finally out (Link). The report was released four-months later than permitted by law; this is the sixth year in a row that the Report has been late. The word 'sloppy' comes to mind; Treasury … [Continue reading]

Sunday, May 25, 2014

On Drip, Rake and Big Swinging Dicks

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  Years ago, when I was a Wall Street banker, there was a ton of pressure to make money TODAY. If you made money today (the calendar year) you got a big bonus, you got a raise and promotion and more capital allocated to what you were doing so … [Continue reading]